Division leaders clash
And, yes, we realize that statement covers all but one team in the Shit Talkers Division
Hold your nose, boys. The Packers and Invaiders, two teams with a share of a division lead, are one of two featured, “Game(s) of the Week.” Yeah, I felt the same way. The more compelling matchup this week will be Bob’s Band Aids taking on Chuck’s gutted Gerbils (thanks to the first substantial round of NFL byes).
Four of the five teams holding a share of a division lead will face off this week in an early peek at potential pretenders and contenders come the December postseason grind. Four teams have a share of the Shit-Talkers’ lead at 4-1 — Jeff Lambert’s Packers, Bob Garcia’s Band Aids, Chuck Nelson’s Gerbils and Matty McCumber’s Who Dey. The fifth team in that mix and a dramatic step down (in terms of ESPN’s current power rankings) is Vern’s Invaiders at 3-2. The updated power rankings from Tuesday morning was topped by the Band Aids followed by the Gerbils, Packers and Who Dey. The Invaiders check in at fifth, the Tirades sixth, the Recliners seventh and the Spread Beaters eighth. The Rangers check in at ninth with WTNE 10th.
Unfortunately, one of those shitty Silent Division teams is going to get in as a division winner. Sorry about that.
This week, four of those top five teams will square off as the Band Aids tangle with the Gerbils and the Packers take on the Invaiders. The winners of those two games will take a big step toward staking a claim to one of the four playoff Golden Tickets that get issued after Thanksgiving.
And, a deeper dive into the standings one third of the way through the regular season shows a couple of “hard-luck” team owners who should have better records. You can partially control how many points your own team scores from week to week, but there is no way to control the schedule and drawing a team that just drops the hammer on you. The two teams, both Silent Division residents, with the most points scored against them are Chris Zimnoch’ Recliners (524 points against, so far; that is close to 105 points against him, on average, every week) and Pringle’s 511 points against. Those are the only two teams that have had more than 500 points posted against them so far. Not far behind, Jordan’s WTNE have had 491 points dropped on them, followed by Ron’s Tirades at 489 points against and John’s Rangers with 475. Notice a trend, there?
All five of those teams should have had at least one or two (WTNE at least one) more wins, on average, statistically. Four of those Silent Division teams had most of that scoring carnage dumped on them by Shit-Talkers, and four of those Shit-Talkers have to face each other in Week 6 (along with the Band Aids vs. Gerbils showcase game, the Tirades take on Who Dey). Let’s let them pound on each other for a few weeks.
Bye Week Issues Begin
The first real test of “bye” week pain begins this week for anyone rostering key players from the Detroit Lions (Chuck’s Jahmyr Gibbs), the Cincinnati Bengals (Who Dey, we are looking at you), the Minnesota Vikings (Justin Jefferson for John’s Rangers) and the Miami Dolphins (Jeff rosters the only viable Dolphin currently in RB Ollie Gordon, so, no he feels no impact this week).
The NFL schedule kicks off with a bang as the defending Super Bowl champion (and loser to the 49ers last week, Go Niners!) Seattle Seahawks fly to Denver for a game tonight. The Jacksonville Jaguars finish their three-week vacation in London with a 6:30 a.m. test Sunday with the Houston Texans.
The Sunday Night game of the week will feature the Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay and the slate winds up Monday with the Washington Commanders hitting the road to battle the 49ers in Santa Clara (Go Niners!).
So, where do we go to get some tasty scoring opportunities in this blizzard of games we face this week? The top choice of five candidates appears to be the scoring fest that might erupt as the Dallas Cowboys visit Lambeau Field (combined 52.5 points is the betting over/under line). Javonte Williams (Band Aids) gets a matchup bump as the Packers rank 24th against the run and allow the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. On the other side of this matchup, the Dallas defense has not stopped anyone this season, giving Christian Watson (Tirades) and Tucker Kraft (Band Aids) big statistical bumps this week. MarShawn Loyd, snagged off waivers Wednesday by the Spread Beaters, is an ideal streamer against a defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points.
Second on the list is Buffalo making a stop at Las Vegas (the over/under number was 53.5 Wednesday morning). Buffalo has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers (making Brock Bowers of the Recliners an elite option), the third-most to quarterbacks, and the second-most to running backs – Ashton Jeanty (Tirades), if he plays, invites hope.
The 52.5-point line for Arizona at the Los Angeles Rams is the third target on our list but a 12.5 point spread for the Rams might not make this as attractive as the first two options. Arizona just surrendered 45 points to Detroit making Matthew Stafford (Rams), Puka Nacua (Band Aids), Kyren Williams (Packers), and Davante Adams (Beaters) all attractive.
The fourth candidate this week is the 50.5-point over/under line for the Commanders at the 49ers (Go Niners!). Washington allows the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, but Christian McCaffrey’s (Tirades) receiving role helps. Jayden Daniels (Packers) reminded us of his upside last week with two touchdown runs.
The final candidate of the week features the Chicago Bears at Atlanta and the lowest combined over/under lines at 49.5 points, but a competitive spread makes it appealing. For Atlanta, Bijan Robinson (Invaiders) and Drake London (WTNE) are the foundations. On both sides of the ball, quarterback injury questions linger. Michael Penix Jr. (knocked out last week with a rib injury) is the key to unlocking London and Chicago’s Caleb Williams (Tirades, which is not a concern here as Brock Purdy would need to be in a body bag to not start this week) is a candidate to return this week.
Game(s) of the Week
Packers (4-1) vs. Invaiders (3-2), Packer favored by 4: It has been a long, long time since this head-to-head match has meant anything at all. Been awhile, eh, sailor? Yup. Usually by this point in the season, Jeff is right where he is now, and the Invaiders are scrambling to find a win or face a fire sale. If my fading memory holds, I think this is the first time in four years since the Invaiders have had the division lead (or a share of it) in two consecutive weeks. Usually, Jeff wins in a laugher, and he likely will again as the Invaiders have been using duct tape and bailing wire to recover from the loss of two of their first three picks to injury. The practice window for second-round pick WR A.J. Brown opened (finally) this week, but we still don’t think he will suit up and go this week. I am thinking the second coming of Jerry Rice would not help in this one. The Packers are favored in four key positional battles and the Invaiders are hoping for some Monday Night voodoo to keep Jeff from rallying for the win, if the Invaiders can build up a big lead Sunday. The Packers get the edge at quarterback with Jayden Daniels at Santa Clara Monday night (Go, Niners!). You can read why some idiot thinks that is a great matchup for Daniels here. They also get an edge with RB Kyren Williams at home to Arizona, and both WRs – Nico Collins in London against Jacksonville and Matthew Golden at home to Dallas. The Invaiders, despite the underdog status, are favored in five positional battles, starting with RB Bijan Robinson at home to Chicago. The Invaiders also get the edge at tight end with Trey McBride at the Rams, flex RB Braelon Allen at New England, the Patriots defense at home to the Jets, and kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn (Houston) in London. As the Swami has said before, he has been burned too many times before betting against the Pack. Because there are three certainties in life – death, taxes and the Pack winning in a close fight. Take the Packers and 2.
Band Aids (4-1) vs. Gerbils (4-1), Band Aids favored by 9: Other than the gutting of Who Dey’s offense this week, the first major bye of the season has dealt a tough blow to the Gerbils’ offense. And, that lucky SOB Bob might reap the benefit. Let’s just say RB Jaylen Warren is no Jahmyr Gibbs. And while Gibbs will be golfing Sunday morning, Chuck will hope and pray Warren (the 11th-ranked RB currently in the ESPN scoring) can post the 14 or more projected points at Tampa Bay on Sunday. While losing Gibbs, Chuck at least gets to reinsert Kenneth Walker III after he enjoyed his bye last week. If Chuck can put the wood to Bob in the backfield, he might have a chance at an upset here. The Band Aids come into this one with four positional advantages. They get the nod at quarterback with Josh Allen at Las Vegas, RB Tony Pollard at Indianapolis, WR Puka Nacua at home to Arizona, and kicker Brandon Aubrey at Green Bay. The Gerbils get three positional edges. They are with Walker at home to the Chargers, and WR Mike Evans and tight end George Kittle (Go, Niners!) at home to the Commanders Monday night. Unless both his running backs go off for 30 (like they did last week, @$!*#@), this looks like a Band Aids win. Boo hoo. The Swami says take the Band Aids and 5.
Best of the Rest
WTNE (0-5) vs. Rangers (1-4), WTNE favored by 1: When two teams combine for only one win by Week 6, their matchup usually would surge to the top of the list for candidate for “Dog of the Week.” But, as of this writing Thursday, this game is the most-compelling watch of the week and the tightest opening line going into kickoff. The favored WTNE is favored in only three positional frays, and takes a statistical draw in a fourth. Jordan will be favored at tight end Isiah Likely (the No. 1-ranked tight end, currently), flex RB Saquon Barkley at home to Carolina and the Baltimore Ravens defense at Cleveland. Jordan’s status as the front-runner in this one lies with the health of two running backs – Quinshon Judkins at home to Baltimore and Barkley. Both are still carrying red “questionable” tags as of this morning. Barkley did not play at all in Week 5 and was knocked out of the Week 4 game early.
The underdog Rangers are favored in four positional battles. John is favored at quarterback with Matthew Stafford at home to Arizona, RB Chuba Hubbard at Philadelphia and both WRs in CeeDee Lamb at Green Bay and Malik Nabers at home to New Orleans. The Swami smells an upset here and says take the Rangers and 5.
Recliners (2-3) vs. Spread Beaters (1-4), Beaters favored by 9: The two “hard-luck” teams in the Silent Division might both have a “must-win” attitude coming into this one. The current line on this one has the Beaters favored by 18, but Chris still has not swapped out WR Ja’Marr Chase (on bye) and his waiver grab of Jalen Coker (Carolina and projected for 8 points at Philadelphia) likely goes into this spot. The Beaters are favored in six of the nine positional battles and that won’t change with Coker sliding into Chase’s spot. The waiver grab of QB Drake Maye might be one of the smartest moves Matt Pringle has made in awhile and he is favored in his battle, along with RB Jonathan Taylor, who is looking to rebound against Tennessee this week, after a tough week of sledding against Pittsburgh in Week 5. Pringle is also favored at WR with Davante Adams at home to Arizona, tight end Travis Kelce at home to the Chargers, the Kansas City defense against those same Chargers, and kicker Spencer Shrader (Indy) at home to Tennessee. The Recliners, winners of two straight, will have an uphill battle this week without Chase. Chris still gets a positional edge at three spots with RB Rhamondre Stevenson at home to the Jets, WR Zay Flowers at Cleveland, and flex (tight end Brock Bowers). Yes, Chris is tentatively starting two tight ends this week, Bowers and Pittsburgh’s Pat Freiermuth. Red “questionable” tags hang on two players for Chris – Bowers and RB Jeremiyah Love at the Rams. The Swami thinks the win streak for Chris ends in Week 6. Take the Beaters and 5.
Dog of the Week
Who Dey (4-1) vs. Tirades (2-3), Tirades favored by 26: With three starters sipping Mai Tais this weekend, Matty from the Natty is scraping the barrel to be competitive in this one, and it is penciling out as no bueno. When we first look at some of these game lines on Thursday and see a spread this big, it usually means the owner way behind has not filled in for an injured player or one on bye. That is not the case in this one. Who Dey has a full lineup, but it just looks outgunned against the Tirades. And don’t you know Ron is sitting in Marietta, Georgia, today sweating this one out. He comes into this battle with the positional edge in five of the nine starting slots and a statistical draw in two others. He is favored at quarterback with Brock Purdy (Go, Niners!) at home to the Commanders on Monday, both RBs in Christian McCaffrey (yeah, Go, Niners!) and Derrick Henry at Cleveland, flex RB Ashton Jeanty at home to the Bills, and kicker Dominic Zveda (the New York Giants) at home to New Orleans. Who Dey gets positional edges at WR with Jaxon Smith-Njigba at Denver Thursday and tight end Colston Loveland at Atlanta. The only injury concern this week will be WR Chris Olave, who still carries the red “questionable” tag as of this writing Thursday.
The Swami says Who Dey is just outgunned. Take the Tirades and 10.
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