Four division rivals square off
It's bye time: Week 5 is here and is the first of 9 weeks without a full slate of teams playing
Players of note sidelined with a bye this week are RBs Chubba Hubbard (Rangers) and Kenneth Walker III (Band Aids) and WR Tetaroia McMillan (Who Dey). And, if you read Ron’s synopsis of the Week 4 action, there were a slew of new names added to the list of walking wounded. As optimistic as some coaches might be about a few of those players, the reality is that “questionable” and “day-to-day” labels might mean a longer stay on your bench because of the four teams not playing a week from now – Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota. There is speculation that two key players (Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson) might be limited or might not play at all this week and will focus, instead, on a Week 7 return. Stay tuned. There could be some interesting Friday waiver moves looming if the status of some of those players changes to “out.”
The jaunt through the inter-divisional portion of our schedule, for the most part, has come to a thankful end for those of us in the Silent (a.ka. “Shitty”) Division as Week 5 kicks off with four intra-divisional rivalries topped off by the “Game(s) of the Week” featuring four of the five top teams in the Shit-Talkers’ Division (and, let’s face it, the league). SeatGeek reports tickets are flying out the door for the showdown between the undefeated Band Aids (4-0) against the Packers (3-1), while the Gerbils (3-1) take a trip to the East Coast to face the Tirades (2-2).
While we often focus on wins and losses, this is still a points league and if you want to know who the best four teams are in the league, look first at the PF (‘points-for”) totals in the league standings. There will you will find only three teams have topped 400 points through the first month of the season (averaging at least 100 points per game). The Tirades, despite having two losses, have the highest points total so far with 430, followed by Who Dey with 423 and the Gerbils with 406. A fourth team, the undefeated Band Aids, are just a hair below 400 (390 points). The Packers are fifth with 381 points and the one-win Rangers are sixth (see what I mean?) with 370 points.
The four lowest-scoring teams are in the Silent Division. The Invaiders sit 7th with 351 points, the Spread Beaters are 8th at 346 points and the Recliners are 9th with 339 points. The lowest-scoring team, WTNE, has not yet cracked 300 points (278).
In the Silent Division, where four teams are just a whisker out of first (and last), the first-place Invaiders take on the one-win Spread Beaters and the one-win Recliners take on winless WTNE. The only inter-division skirmish this week has the Rangers battling Who Dey.
Waiver-wire gems
So, raise your hand if you are surprised at the roster you now manage. If I knew in August what I know now, I still probably would have drafted the wrong guys. But, like any other fantasy season, the roster we drafted in August is starting to look quite a bit different from the one we are managing now. For example, take your first two picks and toss them in the trash can. That is what I am dealing with.
Injuries pile up. Roles change. Players we thought we could count on suddenly aren’t so reliable. As stated above, I faced that reality when De’Von Achane went down for the year and I added Seattle backup Emanuel Wilson two weeks ago, just in case. It turned into a win when he “fell” into the endzone twice last week.
The good news is there are still players out there who can help. And this week, there were several names worth taking seriously and team owners quickly pounced Wednesday morning on three of those free agents – QB Drake Maye of New England was grabbed by Matt Pringle (oh, great, just in time for the match with the Invaiders); the “other” B. Robinson of the Falcons, this one being Brian and not Bijan, was also grabbed by Pringle; and Bob Garcia thinks former RB stud Alvin Kamara might still have a few miles on his treads.
NFL schedule
Action starts tonight with Tampa Bay travelling to Big D to take on the Cowboys. We have another early start Sunday morning as the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars fly across the pond to kick off at 6:30 a.m. (West Coast time). A least one star on Philadelphia has already been ruled “out.” The Atlanta Falcons, once again, hold down one of the prime-time slots with a Sunday Night game at home against the Baltimore Ravens. The slate winds up Monday Night with a potential barnburner with the Buffalo Bills taking on the Los Angeles Rams at Sofi Stadium.
As the Swami looks at the NFL schedule, there are five fantasy matchups he likes a lot, topped off by the Detroit Lions at the Arizona Cardinals. The combined total scoring sits around 54.5 points with Detroit favored by 4.5 points. Arizona has allowed more than 31 points in three straight games, while Detroit’s defense has been giving up points at an alarming rate. Another game with a 54.5-point over/under line is Monday night’s Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams. The Rams carry an implied scoring total approaching 29 points and Buffalo sits around 26.
The third game on the Swami’s radar (for obvious reasons and why he stocked up on beer today) is the San Francisco 49ers (go, 9ers!) at Seattle Seahawks, which has an anticipated combined total of 47.5 points (Seattle is a 2.5-point favorite in this one).
The final two games on the watch list is the New York Giants at Washington Commanders and the Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons. The Giants vs. Commanders’ game has a lower combined point total (43.5) but like Indianapolis last week I like Washington’s positional vulnerabilities (i.e., the Washington defense sucks). In the Ravens vs. Falcons contest, the original combined point total line opened a lot higher but how now settled to 45.5 points based on the uncertainty of QB Lamar Jackson’s injured ankle. The current spread, with Baltimore at -2.5 points, suggests a competitive game rather than a blowout. It bodes well for a heavy dose of RBs Derrick Henry (Tirades) and Bijan Robinson (Invaiders).
Game of the Week
Band Aids (4-0) vs. Packers (3-1), Band Aids favored by 5: The stats pinheads behind the curtains at ESPN favor Bob Garcia to earn his fifth-straight win to open the season. The Swami, unfortunately, has decades-long scars from the number of ties he has bet against Jeff Lambert and the Packers. The Band Aids are favored in four of the nine starting positions. Bob is expected to get the edge at quarterback with the top-ranked Josh Allen on the road Monday night in LaLa Land. He is also estimated to get an edge with RB Javonte Williams, WR Puka Nacua and kicker Brandon Aubrey. The only red flag is the “questionable” tag hanging on flex WR Terry McLaurin. Bob does not have (currently) a lot of wiggle room on the roster with two guys on injured reserve (Travis Etienne Jr. and Jordan Mason) and a third (Ladd McKonkey) carrying a “questionable” tag. But the grab of Kamara Wednesday could come into play as the injury reports firm up Thursday and Friday.
The Packers are estimated to outperform Bob in the other RB position with the Rams’ Kyren Williams, tight end Juwan Johnson and the Minnesota Vikings defense on the road against New Orleans. The two sneaky players to watch will be WR Nico Collins, fresh off a big day in Week 4, and a free agent grab last week, Ollie Gordon II of Miami who sits in the flex position. He has a challenging test at home against an improving Cincinnati defense, but she proved to be more than capable last week in an awful offense. The Swami says bet the house on three certainties -- death, taxes and the Packers finding a way to rally Monday night with Kyren going against Bob’s Puka Nacua and win by 1.
Game of the Week (Part 2)
Gerbils (3-1) vs. Tirades (2-2), Tirades favored by 8: The Gerbils face the biggest handicap from the first of the byes as Kenneth Waker III, the top-ranked running back in the league, is resting on the beach or at the golf course while the rest of the team takes on the highest-scoring team in the league — the Tirades — and the team with the toughest luck so far.
This might be the most exciting game on the docket this week and could be another coin-flip choice for the Swami. The Tirades come into this one with the edge in five of the nine starting positions, starting with QB Brock Purdy on the road in a tough test against Seattle for the top spot in the NFC West (Go Niners!). Ron also gets the nod at RB with King Derrick Henry at Atlanta and both WRs in Tee Higgins at Miami and Christian Watson at home to the Bears, and flex with RB Ashton Jeanty at New England. The Gerbils only get the nod at RB with Jahmyr Gibbs at Arizona and tight end with George Kittle at Seattle. The Swami says take the Tirades and 3.
Best of the Rest
Invaiders (2-2) vs. Spread Beaters (1-3), Beaters favored by 2: Whoever or whatever slime is going to climb out of the dismal, disappointing swamp that is the Silent (Shitty) Division, this game and the next one in this preview (the Recliners vs. WTNE) will go a long way to find out who is going to survive or die a miserable early death and “fire sale” before the end of October. On paper, the Beaters should have this one easily in hand and when it came time to pick winners last week, the Swami choked on the facade that appears to be the Beaters. If the “real” Beaters appear this weekend, this should be an easy win for Matt Pringle. The Beaters are favored in most of the crucial starting positions — RB Bhayshul Tuten and WRs Davante Adams and Parker Washington, flex in RB Omirion Hampton and the Jacksonville kicker (Cam Little). The Invaiders are favored in the lead back position, Bijan Robinson, tight end Trey McBride and the Jacksonville defense as it hosts Philadelphia. The Swami hopes the Invaiders find a way to get the upset but thinks the Beaters win by 1.
Recliners (1-3) vs. WTNE (0-4), Recliners favored by 3: After getting in the win column last week with an upset against Who Dey, we believe Chris will have enough this week to get his second win of the season against Jordan Garcia’s team. The Recliners are favored in four of the nine starting positions with WR Ja’Marr Chase (still “questionable” and in the concussion protocol as of this writing) at Miami, tight end Brock Bowers at New England, and the Green Bay defense at home to the Chicago Bears. The wild cards for Chris are Flex RB Jeremiyah Love at home to Detroit and RB Rhamondre Stevenson at home to Las Vegas. Both RBs carry red “questionable” tags as of this writing. The injury bug has hit WTNE hard with RB Saquon Barkley (currently listed as questionable and he faces the long overseas flight to London Friday) and WR Justin Jefferson. Jordan still has Barkley on the pine as this is being written. His team is favored at QB with Dak Prescott at home to Tampa Bay, WR Drake London at home to Baltimore and the Lions’ kicker (Jake Bates) at Arizona. The Swami says the Recliners find a way to get their second win. Take the Recliners and 1.
Dog of the Week
Who Dey (3-1) vs. Rangers (1-3), Rangers probably favored by 4: Who Dey comes into this one down one starter to the bye (Tetaroia McMillan) but he is still sitting in Matty’s flex position. Who Dey is still favored in three of the nine starting positions with the Bengals Mafia of QB Joe Burrow, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at home to the 49ers (Go Niners!), and tight end Jake Ferguson at home to Tampa Bay. His “mafia” connection with RB Chase Brown and the Bengals defense have a tempting test on the road against the porous Miami Dolphins defense and that threesome could put this game out of reach. John’s Rangers lose two starters (Chubba Hubbard and tight end Darren Waller “the baller”) to the bye schedule but is still favored at four positions with RB Breece Hall (carrying a red-hot “doubtful” tag), WR CeeDee Lamb at home to Tampa Bay and flex with WR DK Metcalf at home to Indianapolis and “rent-a-defense” Dallas squad (grabbed off the wire Wednesday) at home to Tampa Bay. If Breece Hall is out, the only option John has at this point is Chicago RB Kyle Monangai (also listed as “questionable” as of this writing) as a late fallback. Currently, there is a projected “zero” posted alongside Breece in the RB position. With Monangai’s projected 9 points rolled into the lineup, the Rangers should be projected for 88 points and a 4-point win. The Swami says take Who Dey and 5.
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