Spooky week 7 awaits
Bar the door. There are some spooky matchups as Week 7 dawns.
The two best games on the slate this week feature the three co-leaders in the Shit Talkers Division facing tough challenges. It could be a Golden weekend for the Packers, a bit of Smack for Chuck Nelson or some fall "Lovetrain" for Matty McCumber?
When the playoff seedings and pairings are revealed in nine weeks, the winners of two crucial games this week likely will be among the favored to win it all this season. The featured game this week pits defending champ Jeff against Chuck’s feisty Gerbils (both sitting at 5-1), and the other co-leader, Who Dey, takes on Bob Garcia’s Band Aids, one game back at 4-2 after two straight losses.
One of these three will lose this week. That much we can be sure of. Worst case (best case if you are one of the seven teams chasing these assholes) is two of them lose and fall to 5-2 and into a three-way tie for second place with the Band Aids.
Currently, Who Dey holds the upper hand in scoring with 624 points amassed thus far. The Gerbils are second at 607 and the Packers are four points off Chuck’s scoring pace at 603. Those are the only three teams in the league keeping the plus-100-points-per-game scoring pace going.
NFL Schedule
The slate of teams on bye this coming week includes four teams with several fantasy stars. Idle this week are Josh Allen (Band Aids) and James Cook (Packers) from Buffalo, Trevor Lawrence (Invaiders), Parker Washington (Beaters) and Bhayshul Tuten of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Jalen Daniels of the Washington Commanders and the Los Angeles Chargers.
The fun all starts with New England visiting Chicago tonight.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints continue the frivolity in Paris (yes, the Paris in France) at 6:30 a.m. PDT Sunday so make sure those Steelers and Saints you have lined up this week are in place before opening the bottle of tequila on Saturday night. The final game Sunday has Kansas City visiting Seattle. And, the slate winds up with Dallas at Philadelphia Monday night.
The prime-time game tonight features one of four games with a combined over/under estimate topping 50 points. The Patriots at Bears check in at a combined estimate of 50.5 points. So, load up on Pats and Bears if you’ve got them. The passing attack for New England – Drake Maye (Beaters), A.J. Brown (Invaiders) are the most likely options to post big numbers. Maye’s appeal increases if Chicago’s offense forces the Patriots to keep throwing.
The biggest combined line for the week is the Packers at the Lions at 53.5 points. This is the golden opportunity we should be loading up on. It also has a manageable spread (Detroit is favored by 3) and there are some outstanding leverage opportunities. QB Jordan Love (Invaiders) has one of the best matchups on the slate this week. Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and tight ends this season, as well as the third-most to opposing wide receivers. That puts Tucker Kraft (Band Aids) in an attractive position, while Christian Watson (Tirades) and Matthew Golden (Packers) continue to serve as high-end receiving options. The wild card is the Detroit matchup is not good for Green Bay’s running backs, even with Josh Jacobs (Recliners) expected to rejoin the starting lineup after his extended legal issues with the commissioner’s office. RB Jahmyr Gibbs (Gerbils) could score big this week as the Packers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs.
The other two topping 50 points for a combined over/under are the 49ers (Go Niners!) at the Falcons and the Bengals at the Ravens.
Lock in QB Brock Purdy and RB Christian McCaffrey (both Tirades) as automatic starts for the 49ers, who are favored by 3 in this one. Purdy and whoever might start at WR could have big days as Atlanta has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. RB Bijan Robinson (Invaiders) and WR Drake London (WTNE) both face tough sledding against a tough defense but still could produce high-end fantasy totals. The Bengals vs. Ravens’ game checks in with the second-highest total (51.5 points) for the week. Baltimore is favored by 2 ½ points despite only managing 10 points a week ago on the road in Cleveland. The shootout potential remains as we continue watching the injury report to see the status of QB Lamar Jackson, who has missed the last two games. RB Derrick Henry (Tirades) is the fifth-ranked RB going into this week, and Zay Flowers (Recliners) is WR11. Ja’Marr Chase (Recliners) and RB Chase Brown (Who Dey) both have scoring opportunities this week.
Game of the Week
Packers (5-1) vs. Gerbils (5-1), Gerbils favored by 10: What more can we say about this one? The Gerbils are one of only two teams projected to top 100 points from the early lines posted by ESPN. The Packers have two stars on the sideline this week, and the wise guys might jump at the chance to call a for-sure loss this week for the Packers. But, Jeff still has a trick or two up his sleeve as the countdown to Halloween continues. He has already turned to the waiver wire to plug one short-term hole in his lineup after losing QB Jalen Hurts for the season last week. He had to decide if he would roll with Philadelphia’s heir apparent, Tanner McKee (projected for 14.2 points), this week or go shopping in the free-agent pool. He opted for the free-agent route by grabbing Kyler Murray, who has a home game against Indianapolis (projected for 18 points). The two starters on the sideline are there because of a “bye” as QB Jayden Daniels and RB James Cook get the week off. And, that is where the mismatches and advantages for Chuck begins. They both have advantages at four starting positions. The Gerbils get the edge at both RBs with Jahmyr Gibbs at home to Green Bay and Kenneth Walker III travelling back home to the Pacific Northwest to take on the tough Seahawks’ defense, at tight end with George Kittle at Atlanta and flex RB Jaylen Warren in Paris against the Saints. And, you have to love Chuck has a kicker (from Green Bay) named Trey Smack. He is a push against Jeff’s Chase McLaughlin (Tampa Bay) at Carolina. The Packers have the edge at QB with Kyler Murray hosting Indianapolis, both WRs as Nico Collins is at home to the Giants and Matthew Golden is at Detroit, and the Minnesota Vikings defense hosting Indianapolis. This game likely comes down to how much production Chuck gets from his two WRs (George Pickens at Philadelphia and Luther Burden tonight at home to the Patriots). The Swami thinks it will be enough to send Jeff Packing. Take the Gerbils and 2. (Editor’s note: Every time the Swami picks against the Packers, Jeff wins. Just sayin’.)
Best of the Rest
Who Dey (5-1) vs. Band Aids (4-2), Band Aids favored by 1: The tightest line on the board this week is this doozy between Matty from the Natty and Bob Garcia. Who Dey comes in as a 1-point dog, and hopes to get off to a hot start with the Lovetrain at tight end. Colston Loveland and resurrected himself from the tight end graveyard with the return of QB Caleb Williams. Tight end is one of four positional advantages he has going into this thriller. He also is favored at flex with RB Chase Brown at Baltimore, WR Tetairoa McMillan at home to Tampa Bay and the Tennessee Titans defense at home to Cleveland. Bob counters with advantages at RB and K as Javonte Williams and Brandon Aubrey travel to Philadelphia and at WR as Puka Nacua travels to Las Vegas. The two teams push at QB (C.J. Stroud at home to the New York Giants for Matty vs. Aaron Rogers in Paris against the Saints for Bob) and at RB2 (J.K. Dobbins at Arizona for Who Dey vs. Tony Pollard at home to Cleveland for the Band Aids). The Swami loves to pick against the Band Aids and says take Who Dey and the 1 point of hell.
Rangers (2-4) vs. Spread Beaters (2-4), Rangers favored by 25: This is, truly, a stunning line. Matt Pringle, who lost another starter last week (WR Davonte Adams) for the season, comes into this one with a pair of handcuffs around his wrists and rope around his neck. His matchups are brutal and only three starters are projected for double digit scoring and his team’s over/under betting score is 75. The Rangers, however, come into this one on a winning streak and have not lost a game in the division (however, he has only played one game against a Silent foe). Let’s not let facts get in the way of a good story. The Rangers are favored at six of the nine starting positions. John’s boys get the edge at both RBs and he is hoping for a shootout between Carolina and Tampa Bay as he starts both Chuba Hubbard and Bucky Irving, both WRs at CeeDee Lamb is at Philadelphia and Malik Naybors is at Houston, the Jets defense at home to Miami, and kicker Chris Boswell in Paris against the Saints. The Beaters get an edge in only one position – QB Drake Maye tonight in Chicago. The two teams push at flex and tight end. The Rangers send out Amon-Ra St. Brown at flex and Hunter Henry at tight end. The Beaters counter with RB Jonathan Taylor and Travis Kelce (still carrying a red “questionable” tag as of this writing Thursday morning). The Swami says bet on the Rangers and give 10.
Invaiders (3-3) vs. Recliners (2-4), Recliners favored by 2: When I was summarizing the players with the best chance to post big numbers earlier, it dawned on me that Chris has a lot of starters who could go off this week and the early line reflects that. But, this is the second-closest line of the week. The Recliners come in with advantages at five of the nine starting positions and a sea of red as health concerns continues to dog Chris these days. It truly is a boom-or-bust approach this week for the Recliners. The starting nod still goes to the Baltimore QB while all eyes continue to watch the practice field for any sign of Lamar Jackson. Chris also is sending out Jeremiah Love and the recently returned-from-Exile Island Josh Jacobs at RB. Both backs have injury concerns and no one is sure how much punch Jacobs will have or any at all behind that pathetic Green Bay offensive line. Maybe the return of Jacobs smooths some Shinola over that crap up front. The other M*A*S*H unit tag hangs on tight end Brock Bowers. Despite all of the red warning lights, the Recliners are still favored at both RBs with Love at home to Denver and Jacobs at Detroit, tight end Bowers at home to the Rams, and flex WR Jalen Coker at home to Tampa Bay. The Invaiders counter with advantages in four starting positions – QB Jordan Love at Detroit, RB Bijan Robinson at home to the 49ers (Go Niners!), WR Emeka Egbuka at Carolina, and kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn at home to the Giants. The Swami knows this is the kiss of death but says take the Invaiders and 1.
Dog of the Week
Tirades (2-4) vs. WTNE (0-6), Tirades favored by 20: Wow. Who had this early-season matchup for the “Dog of the Week” on their bingo card? We are not sure what is more surprising … the Tirades three games back of the front-runners in the division six weeks in, or Jordan’s team still looking for its first win of the young season? When we look at the early line on this one, it reminds us of the inscription on most rear-view mirrors – “Objects are closer than they appear.” The Tirades are estimated for 99 points this week and Jordan’s squad has topped 80 points only twice this season (84 in Week 1 and 85 in Week 5), and has posted two of the lowest scores of the season in the other four weeks. Either way, there is no way to slice this other than, “yuck.” We watch this game so you don’t have to. That is how hard we work for you week in and week out at JSFL Today. Both teams have dropped four spots in the power rankings from the initial post-draft prognostication. Jordan, initially ranked No. 6 coming out of the draft, now sits in the basement. The Tirades, initially ranked second, have suffered some brutal losses and now sit No. 6 in the power rankings.
But, we think that drought ends this week. The Tirades come into this one favored at seven of the nine starting positions. We will rattle them off just to fill up the column inches this week. Ron gets the positional edge at QB and both RBs as Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are on the road in Atlanta (are we going this week, Ron? And, Go, 9ers!), and Derrick Henry at home to the Bengals, WR Christian Watson at Detroit, flex RB Ashton Jeanty at home to the Rams, the Texans defense at home to the Giants, and kicker (the Giants’ whiz kid Dominic Zvada at Houston). Jordan gets an edge only at one WR spot (Drake London at home to the 49ers) and tight end Isaiah Likely at Houston. This one could get ugly quickly. The Swami says take the Tirades and as many as you want.
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