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Swami says: When in doubt, bet on rookies

Updated: Sep 11

Opening-week battles are all predicted to be close, save one: Gerbils are 10-point underdogs to Beaters


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Spread Beaters hope to get some big-play explosiveness from rookie Ashton Jeanty.


There is a compelling and tight slate of games to kick off the 2025 season. Only one game – the Gerbils at the Santa Monica Spread Beaters – has a double-digit, 10-point opening line in Matt Pringle’s favor. The other four games all have an opening line of 7 points or less, and three of those have a spread of 5 points or less. One game, in fact, is a complete tossup. It could be tough sledding for the Swami to pick through the noise and offer up any meaningful predictions how the Opening Weekend might play out.


Talk about opening with a bang and not a whimper …


To help sort out those lines, wire or Zelle those crisp $20s and it will help in the prediction game. But, when cornered, the Swami always says, “Go with the red-hot rookies.”


All five games on the slate are out-of-division battles, topped by the ever-popular “Battle of the Brothers.”


The tightest line on the board is the 2-point spread between Jordan Garcia’s WTNE and Matthew McCumber’s Who Dey. And, after a second look, the opening line is as close as it is only because Jordan has not swapped out his kicker (Jason Sanders of Miami opens the season on the injured reserve). Look for WTNE to swap in Miami’s backup or kicker on the bench (Ka’imi Fairbairn of Houston and his projected 8 points).

 

Game of the Week

Hermosa Recliners (favored by 5) vs. Tirades: It is possible the loser of this opener might not make the playoffs. I hate (no, I don’t) to put pressure on Ron and Chris so early in the season, but the way the two divisions stack up this season every out-of-conference win could be the difference come early December. You certainly can’t win a playoff spot in September, but you sure can lose one (just ask me about that one). The early line gives Chris a 54-percent chance of notching this win, and the younger roster of players on the Recliners are the reason why. ESPN gives the slight edge to the Tirades’ receiving corps (Ja’Marr Chase and Marvin Harrison Jr.) and at flex (Breece Hall over J.K. Dobbins). Chris gets the slight edge at tight end (Trey McBride at New Orleans), at defense (New England at home to the Raiders), kicker (Jake Elliott at home to Dallas), and at quarterback (Joe Burrow on the road at the Dog Pound in Cleveland over Brock Purdy’s annual road trek to the Pacific Northwest to the always loud Lumen Field). The two running backs are both a push (Bijan Robinson and Chuba Hubbard for Chris; and Jonathan Taylor and Jerome Ford for Ron).

Swami Says: Take the Recliners and the 5

 

Best of the Rest

Chandler Rangers vs. Del Mar Packers (favored by 4): On paper, this one looks about as even as it can get. Come game day, though, we think the Pack will have plenty in the tank to put this one away with ease. Now, if John could just play two quarterbacks …. The quarterbacks (Jalen Hurts for John and Lamar Jackson for Jeff), lead running back (Josh Jacobs for John and De’Von Achane for Jeff), flex (WR Mike Evans for John and RB James Cook for Jeff) and kicker (Chris Boswell, the obligatory Steeler for John and Brandon Aubrey for Jeff) are all tossups. Jeff gets the scoring edge with RB Christian McCaffrey (vs. Aaron Jones Sr.), A.J. Brown (vs. Terry McLaurin) and Sam LaPorta (vs. Hunter Henry). The Rangers get the slight edge with Xavier Worth at WR over Tyreek Hill and the Pittsburgh defense over the Eagles.

Swami Says: Bet the house on this one, Pack by 3

 

WTNE (favored by 9+) vs. Who Dey: As noted above, this one still looks to be a tossup initially and was in the running for “Game of the Week” honors, but Jordan should have a runaway in the making once he swaps out his kicker. The quarterback and running backs should swing this one in Jordan’s favor. Justin Hebert is favored over Jordan Love and Saquon Barkley is a 4-point advantage over Matthew’s Bucky Irving. The rest of the starters are coin flips. Jordan sends out WRs Malik Nabers, Ladd McConkey (double-dipping on the Chargers), and Zay Flowers and has Brock Bowers at tight end.

Swami Says: Take WTNE by 7

 

Sequim Invaiders (favored by 7) vs. Band Aids: These two guys – Vern and Bob – just don’t like each other, but Bob has had the edge in this season-opener for going on two decades. The Invaiders, thanks to Bob trading away three early picks to the Spread Beaters for Derrick Henry, hope the Draft Day youth movement comes through in a big way. The lack of three early picks shows up in the lines for quarterback (Bo Nix for the Invaiders over Caleb Williams for Bob), RB Kenneth Walker III for the Invaiders (David Montgomery for Bob) and both WRs (Ceedee Lamb and Brian Thomas Jr. for the Invaiders over Tee Higgins and Keon Coleman for Bob). Bob gets the advantage at lead back (Derrick Henry) and tight end (Mark Andrews).

Swami Says: Please god, Invaiders by 3

 

I’d Rather Play Shuffleboard …

Santa Monica Spread Beaters (favored by 10) vs. Westchester Gerbils: The young guns and stud rookies should be on full display in this one, and one of them could be the cornerstone of Matt’s Spread Beaters for the next two years to come. Matt rolled the dice and those early-round picks from Bob to land not just Ashton Jeanty of the Raiders but also Omirion Hampton (since benched when this line first came out). He has a young stud, Jayden McDaniels, at QB, Drake London and Nico Collins at WR, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown at flex and the best defense in the preseason rankings in the Denver Broncos. Matt is heavily favored in this one at QB, at RB2 in James Conner, both WR slots, tight end, flex (Amon-Ra), and the defense. The only edges Chuck has in this one are at lead back (Jahmyr Gibbs) and kicker (Chase McLaughlin). If kicker is one of only two advantages, you are in for a long weekend.

Swami Says: Spread Beaters by a dozen

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