Potential blowouts are in the forecast
Now that the calendar has flipped to October, goofy anomalies in the schedule begin to crop up
A string of games across the globe kickoff at ungodly times on the West Coast and the first byes of the schedule loom a week from now (in Week 5). Buckle up, boys. Now, it gets really dicey.
What a mess we have brewing these days in the standings of both divisions. Two teams (Who Dey and the Band Aids) remain unbeaten and three teams under .500 in the junior circuit (the Beaters, Invaiders and Rangers) can still cling to the crappy claim that they still have a share of first place. What a mess we have a brewin’.
As fall colors begin to unfurl, as temperatures begin to fall and the first hint of snow hangs in the air, we turn misty eyes to a few out-of-division battles between rivals that dot the upcoming Week 4 lineup — highlighted by Matt Pringle and Jeff Lambert battling for glory, bragging rights and, I am sure, a few interesting side bets. The Gerbils will take on the Rangers and the Recliners will take on the Cincinnati mafia (Who Dey).
Three potential blowouts are in the forecast as three teams — the Tirades, Recliners and Gerbils — all open the week with double-digit betting lines in their favor. A win will be welcomed news in Reclinerville as Chris Zimnoch is still searching for his first win of the season. One other team is still looking to get off the 0-fer train — Jordan Garcia’s WTNE, which is favored to cash in against the Invaiders this week.
NFL Schedule
The Week 4 slate kicks off at 5:15 p.m. PDT tonight (Thursday) as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Cleveland to battle in a game no one else in the league cares about except John. And, set those lineups Saturday night before going to bed because the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders kick off at 6:30 a.m. PDT in London.
The Sunday night game will feature the Detroit Lions traveling to Carolina to take on the Panthers, and the slate wraps up Monday night with the Atlanta Falcons taking on the New Orleans Saints. Are there any over/under guesses on how many points I am going to need Monday from Bijan Robinson to catch Jordan Garcia?
Looking ahead, if you have a lineup chock full of Panthers or Chiefs, you might want to start to prep for their being on vacation a week from now (Week 5). They start the bye schedule, followed by the Lions, Bengals, Dolphins and Vikings resting in Week 6.
When we start to look deeper at some of the betting lines on the full slate of offerings this week, five games stick out as the ones to try to exploit before the first ball gets kicked off. As the staff at footballguys.com clarify, “The goal here is to highlight matchups that give us both automatic starts capable of hitting their ceilings and players whose lineup value gets pushed upward based on the opponent.”
Topping the list of matchups to exploit is Jacksonville at Cincinnati. The early “combined points” total has climbed to 51.5, the highest on the Week 4 board, with Cincinnati carrying a 27-point implied total and Jacksonville at 24.5. Can you say, “Potential shootout?” Joe Burrow (Who Dey), Ja'Marr Chase (Recliners), Tee Higgins (Tirades), and Chase Brown (that Who Dey, again) are all attractive, but Jacksonville offers interesting leverage beyond the front-line plays. Trevor Lawrence (Invaiders) is coming off three touchdown passes against New England, and the matchup raises his appeal along with Jacksonville’s pass-catchers. Good luck guessing which one(s).
The second game on the watch list is Detroit (a 27-point implied total) against Carolina (in a game with a 50.5-point over/under. Detroit is favored by roughly a field goal. Jahmyr Gibbs (Gerbils) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (Rangers) are straightforward plays, with Detroit averaging 31 points per game and Carolina’s secondary ravaged by injuries.
The third offering on the plate is the early game in London (Indy vs. Washington). It may not have the shootout potential of the other games here, but it may offer some of the best positional matchups. The total is 46.5, with Indianapolis favored by roughly four points. Jonathan Taylor (Beaters) is the Colts’ centerpiece, while Tyler Warren (WTNE) gets an especially interesting matchup against a Washington defense that gives up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
The fourth appetizer on the menu is Dallas at Houston. The combined total is projected 47.5, and Houston is a modest favorite. The Texans are the side that are particularly interesting. The Dallas defense has already been attacked successfully through the air and WR Nico Collins (Packers) is expected to return from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for the last two games, so his status bears watching. David Montgomery (also a Packer) and Woody Marks (Invaiders) also have some appeal against a Dallas defense that’s given up the eighth-most points to opposing running backs.
The one team with a lopsided spread (Kansas City with a 26-point implied total against the Raiders in a game carrying a healthy 47.5-point over/under) might be more appealing than the double-digit spreads attached to Baltimore and some of the other high-powered offenses this week. Patrick Mahomes II (Recliners), Ken Walker III (Band Aids), Travis Kelce (Beaters), and Rashee Rice (also a Beater) are obvious plays.
Game of the Week
Spreadbeaters (1-2) vs. Packers (2-1), Beaters favored by 4: There is never any love lost when these two brothers from another mother tangle in the JSFL. I personally think this is more about bragging rights and the chance for Pringle to claw his way back to .500 and still keep a lock on first place in the Silent (aka Shitty) Division. It would only be icing on the cake if the Beaters can drop the defending champs back to .500 after an unexpected strong start this season. (An aside here, there has to be some team or teams in the Shitty Division that can put the fear of god in the bigmouths in the Shit-Talkers’ Division, amirite?). The Beaters come into this one as the slight favorite and both teams come into this one relatively healthy (only Pack WRs Jalen Coker and Devonta Smith are listed as “questionable” on the early injury reports). We will get in to that more later. Positionally, Pringle gets the advantage in five parts of the starting lineup, while Lambert only gets two. The Beaters get the edge from the pinheads at ESPN at QB with Kyler Murray back as the signal caller in Minnesota, RB Jonathan Taylor early Sunday morning in London, both WRs in Davante Adams and Parker Washington, and tight end Travis Kelce. The Pack is favored at flex with RB David Montgomery and the Minnesota Vikings’ defense. It is two “push,” or coin-flip, positions that might determine who wins this one. The positions in question are the second RB (Bhayshul Tuten for Pringle and Kyren Williams for Jeff) and the kicker (Cam Little for Pringle and Chase McLaughlin for Jeff). With the heavy lean on Jacksonville with Tuten, Washington and Little, the Swami thinks Pringle gets back even, but it might be another nail-biter for both managers. The good news for Pringle is he won’t have to sweat out a late, Monday night rally. All of the teams will be done scoring Sunday night once the Panther game ends (Coker for Jeff). Take the Beaters and 1.
Best of the Rest
Invaiders (1-2) vs. WTNE (0-3), WTNE favored by 4: This is the only other game on the slate with a spread under double digits and it is hard to believe two teams with only one win between them would be a featured game, but there you have it. Both teams limp into this one banged up and battered. Jordan is the only one with a player (WR Justin Jefferson) carrying a “questionable” injury tag as the week unfolds. Jordan gets the edge at four starting positions, as do the Invaiders. WTNE is favored at RB with Cam Skattebo at home to Arizona and both WRs with Jefferson, who left his Week 3 game with an ankle injury, and Drake London at New Orleans. WTNE is also favored at defense (the Baltimore Ravens hosting Tennessee). After losing first-round pick De’Von Achane last week for the season, the Invaiders went shopping on the waiver wire and landed two free agents who likely will start this week. RB Braelon Allen was one of the free-agent finds and he has a intriguing matchup at Chicago, while WR Josh Downs was another Wednesday grab and he has an interesting play in London against the Commanders. Downs is one of the positions where the Invaiders are favored. The other three are RB Bijan Robinson, QB Trevor Lawrence (screw you, Justin Herbert) and tight end Trey McBride. The Swami hates to pick against himself, but he says to take WTNE to get his first win by 1 point.
Who Dey (3-0) vs. Recliners (0-3), Recliners favored by 10: As we have said before, as go the Cincinnati Bengals, so go the Bengal Mafia (Who Dey). As cited above, the Bengals have one of the top-five scoring (shoot-out potential) matchups of the week at Jacksonville and it will decide if Matty from the Natty can make this game interesting. The Recliners, however, come into this game as healthy as they have been all season (only WR Zay Flowers carries a “questionable” tag as of this writing Thursday morning), and is favored at six of the nine starting positions. The Recliners are favored at QB with Lamar Jackson at home to Tennessee, RB Jeremiyah Love at the New York Giants, tight end Brock Bowers, flex RB Aaron Jones Sr., the Packers defense at Tampa Bay and kicker Tyler Loop of Baltimore.
Who Dey is favored at three starting spots with RB D’Andre Swift at home to the Jets, and both WRs with Jaxon Smith-Njigba at home to the Chargers and Chris Olave at home to Atlanta. The Swami says the Recliners will get their first win. Take the Recliners and 8.
Tirades (2-1) vs. Band Aids (3-0), Tirades favored by 15: Oh, boy, these next two matchups could be U-G-L-Y, with a capital Ugh! The brothers-in-law also likely will have a side bet (or two) riding on this one. The Band Aids limp into this one undefeated but you would not guess that by looking at the scoring totals. Bob’s Band Aids (98.33 points per game, 295 through the first three weeks) are averaging a full 15 points per game fewer than Ron’s Tirades (113.33 points per game, 340 through the first three games) and the line on this matchup reflects that discrepancy. The Tirades come into this one on a heater after hanging 124 on the Pack last week and are favored at six of the nine starting positions. Ron gets the edge at both RBs with Christian McCaffrey (Go Niners!) at home to Denver and Derrick Henry at home to Tennessee, both WRs as Tee Higgins is at home to Jacksonville and Christian Watson is at Tampa Bay, tight end Dalton Kincaid at home to New England, flex as RB Ashton Jeanty is at home to Kansas City and defense with the Seattle Seahawks looking to feast at home against the Chargers. Bob only gets a positional nod at QB with Josh Allen at home to New England and at kicker with Brandon Aubrey kicking on the road at Houston. Injuries continue to plague the Band Aids as three players (RB Tony Pollard, WR Ladd McConkey and flex WR Puka Nacua all have the ugly, red “questionable” tags hanging on them as this is written). Speculation continues to swirl around Nacua and whether there is more than just an injury issue with him in the Rams’ camp or with the NFL commissioner’s office. This one could be over quickly. The Swami says take the Tirades and 10.
Dog of the Week
Gerbils (2-1) vs. Rangers (1-2), Gerbils favored by 20: The ugliest potential game on the slate is this stinker. The Gerbils come into this one heavily favored at seven of the nine starting positions. And, surprisingly, only one Ranger (RB Bucky Irving) carries a “questionable” tag around his neck. The Gerbils are favored at QB with Tyler Shough of New Orleans at home to Atlanta, and both RBs with Jahmyr Gibbs at Carolina and Kenneth Walker III at Las Vegas. Chuck is also favored at tight end with George Kittle at home to Denver, flex RB Jaylen Warren at Cleveland, the Rams defense at Philadelphia and San Francisco kicker (Go Niners!) Eddie Pinero. The Rangers are favored only at the wide receiver positions with Amon-Ra St. Brown at Londan against the Panthers and CeeDee Lamb at Houston. We hate to say this and jinx Chuck, but the Rangers get pretty feisty when they are double-digit dogs. The Swami painfully remembers several games where the Rangers rose up and pulled the huge upset. We just don’t get that vibe here. The Swami says gather up all of the spare cash you have to take the Gerbils and 10.
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