And the magic number is ....?
- Vern Ahrendes
- Nov 13, 2025
- 7 min read
Since it is never too soon to get drunk on life and holiday cheer (hic!), we at JSFL Today have a little holiday song to help get everyone in the holiday mood (sung to the classic, “Deck the Halls”)
“ ‘Tis the season to dump stars,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.
Trade rumors are near and far,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.
The Tirades plan to dump the best,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.
And, Bob is unloading all the rest,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.
We only have 2 more weeks to deal,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.
And stock up on picks for real,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.”
With that fun out of the way, we can get down to the meat and potatoes of which four teams have the best chance to punch a golden ticket to the playoffs.
Diving deeper into the numbers and the upcoming schedule, it is looking more and more like 10 is the magic number of wins to advance. Jeff Lambert’s Pack, at 8-2 and two wins clear of the rest of the division, is the team closest to grab the first invitation. And, with the Pack and the 6-4 Gerbils tangling this week, Jeff could take a huge step to extend his lead with four more weeks to go after this one is in the books, or Chuck could tighten Jeff’s sphincter muscle and make everyone’s life a little more interesting.
The next two teams closest to the 10-win threshold are the 7-3 Recliners and Spread Beaters and only one of those two Silent Division leaders will win this week as they play each other in a game that might decide who wins that division.
The winner grabs at least a one-game lead on the rest of the division and the other lands in a likely dogfight for the final two playoff spots with the 6-4 WTNE and the Gerbils. The only other team still mathematically in the mix – and Ron will go apoplectic when he reads this -- are the 4-6 Tirades, who have to win 5 straight and hope WTNE or the Gerbils can’t win three of their next five games. Editor's Note: Yes, and pigs will fly and Santa Claus is real and... you get it. Not gonna happen.
And, as crazy as that sounds, the Tirades face only two teams (the Gerbils and the Pack) with winning records over the next five weeks. Stranger things have happened. It is a one-in-a-million shot and likely won’t happen, but, hey, we need to sell subscriptions and drive sales. So, call it “clickbait.”
If we look at the rest of schedule, the Pack has one of the easiest closing slates as it only faces two teams (the Gerbils and WTNE) with winning records. The easiest closing slate belongs to Matt Pringle’s Spread Beaters as it only faces one team (the Recliners this week) over the next 5 weeks with a winning record. Jordan’s WTNE also has an easier path to the playoffs with only two teams (the Recliners in Week 13 and the Gerbils in the final week) with winning records left to play.
On the “tough-times-ahead” side of the betting lines, the Recliners have an uphill climb as Chris has four teams left on his schedule with winning records (the Spread Beaters this week, then the Gerbils, WTNE and he closes with the Gerbils).
The trade deadline is fast approaching and I even dabbled a toe or two in the trade market waters in the last few days.
****** BREAKING NEWS *******
At least three potential trade offers are currently being negotiated that I know about. Sorry to say none of the details can be released at this time. Stay tuned. As we get more concrete offers in ink, we will let you know. We now return you to your previous programming.
*********************************
Bob already told me last week he was planning to unload his roster this week (no trade proposals have popped up on ESPN as of this writing), and Ron has had his entire roster on Craigslist for nearly a month. The other potential shoe to drop is someone going after either Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts (both on the Rangers’ squad) to beef up the quarterback line. The Spread Beaters are the most likely trade target there as Pringle now has lost both starters to injury (Jayden Daniels of the Commanders and Jaxson Dart of the New York Giants).
Were we the unlucky charm last week for signaling Dart as a player to watch? If that is the case, maybe we should put a bulls-eye on De’Vone Achane, Matthew Stafford in this week’s reporting … anyone else? As the deadline ticks down to midnight Wednesday, November 26, expect the cell phones and emails of several owners to be lighting up.
Two NFL Teams on Bye
Take a deep breath and exhale as only two NFL teams – the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints – are on a bye in Week 11. The Jets kick off the schedule with a trip to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots on Thursday. The international slate of games wrap up with the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins cavorting in Spain at 6:30 a.m. Sunday. The Sunday Night game could be a barn-burner as the Detroit Lions travel to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the Philadelphia Eagles. And, the schedule wraps up Monday with the Dallas Cowboys travelling to Sin City to take on the Las Vegas Raiders.
Game of the Week
Recliners (7-3) vs. the Spread Beaters (7-3), Recliners favored by 7: Both of the division titles could be won or lost this weekend as the top two teams in the Silent Division, the 7-3 Recliners and Spread Beaters, also square off this weekend and could well decide who will be playing for the $ in another six weeks. These two teams lit up the scoreboard the last time they tangled in Week 6 (the Beaters won, 119-112), and there is no doubt this could be another head spinner this weekend. On paper, the advantages all line up in Chris’ corner as he gets the edge at QB with Matthew Stafford, both RBs (Bijan Robinson and Rico Dowdle), and tight end Trey McBride. The wild card is that Pringle has several favorable matchups this week as his QB (currently Marcus Mariotta) travels to Miami Thursday, Ashton Jeanty gets the suspect Dallas run defense and D’Andre Swift gets the Minnesota defense. The Beaters do get the statistical edge at both WRs with Drake London at home to Carolina and Nico Collins at the crappy Tennessee Titans. The Swami does not think the Rams’ duo of Stafford and WR Puka Nacua will have the same success this week against Seattle as they had last week against the 49ers (whew, that stunk). The Swami thinks Matt will find some way to win this one by 1.
Best of the Rest
Packers (8-2) vs. the Gerbils (6-4), Packers favored by 19: It could be “win-or-go-home” week for Chuck’s Gerbils. If the Pack can open up a 3-game win with four to go, it could end Chuck’s season. If he loses this one, he then faces the likelihood of having to defeat the 6-4 WTNE for the final playoff spot, and if both teams end the year with the same record, Chuck currently wins that tiebreaker, but barely (by only 46 points as the Gerbils have scored 957 points so far, and WTNE 911). And, Chuck barely edges the Tirades, currently, if Ron wins out (957-951) and has another 137-point week in his quiver. The ESPN projection advantages this week all lean Jeff’s way, with one exception, in this one. The Pack has the edge at QB (Drake Maye), both RBs (De’Von Achane and Christian McCaffrey), WR2 (the recently traded-for Justin Jefferson), flex (RB James Cook III) and kicker (Brandon Aubrey). The only positional advantage Chuck has is the Texans’ defense at the Titans (hoping for 30, there?). The Swami says take the Pack and 15.
Rangers (2-8) vs. WTNE (6-4), Rangers favored by 2: Spoiler alert! The best game of the week might be this one as Jordan Garcia fights for his playoff life as a 2-point dog to John’s Rangers. This one is about as even as it can get. John gets positional advantages at QB (Josh Allen, as long as he is still a Ranger), RB1 Josh Jacobs, flex (RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. and the Pittsburgh kicker in a potentially high-scoring affair against Cincinnati. WTNE gets the edge at RB2 (Quinshon Judkins), both WRs (Ladd McConkey and Zay Flowers), tight end (Brock Bowers) and the Packers defense at the New York Giants. Jordan has too much on the line. He needs to win this one. He has to win this one. The Swami thinks he will and says take WTNE and 1.
Dogs of the Week
Tirades (4-6) at Invaiders (4-6), Tirades favored by 5: It is conceivable to believe Jonathan Taylor has played his last game as a Tirade. He is on a bye this week and is being offered like cocaine to anyone who will sample it this week. It would not be out of the question to think Ron is also shopping WR Marvin Harrison Jr., RB Breece Hall and/or WR Emeka Egbuka for draft picks, packs of gum or 49ers’ merchandise. Two of those guys, Hall and Egbuka, should be enough to get the Tirades another win. Both are considered positional advantages in this dog. So is WR Ja’Marr Chase, reinvigorated by the recent arrival of Joe Flacco. The Tirades also have an advantage at flex with recently snagged free agent RB Woody Marks. The only advantages the Invaiders muster are at tight end (Travis Kelce) and defense (Baltimore at Cleveland). The Swami has been cursed nearly every time he has backed the Tirades, but he will bite the poisoned apple once more and say, ‘take the Tirades’ and 3.
Band Aids (2-8) vs. Who Dey (4-6), Band Aids favored by 12: Woof. What a dog this one is penciling out to be. The stats geeks at ESPN don’t think Matty will crack the 70-point barrier in this one. Bob gets the positional advantage at QB (Caleb Williams), both RBs (Derrick Henry, his final hurrah as a Band Aid?, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt), tight end Mark Andrews and the Patriots defense. Matty only gets the positional advantage at both WRs (Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Deebo Samuel). The Swami says take the Band Aids and 15.
Comments